Deer Lodge, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

406
FXUS65 KMSO 251810
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1210 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Hot, dry, and smoky conditions continue through this week.

- Even hotter, drier, and windy conditions to end next week.

- Potential cool down to near average temperatures next weekend,
  though it remains dry.

A ridge over the western U.S. is leaving western Montana and
central Idaho hot and dry. The ridge is being sustained by the
Southwest Monsoon pattern that is currently going strong. However,
the ridge axis, or its center, is located in central and eastern
Montana, and that is steering any of the monsoon moisture east of
our region. As a result, very dry air from the northeast Pacific
Ocean region is being pulled in and then heated by the subsidence
under the ridge. This will continue for the rest of the week. The
exception to the dryness is the southern portions of Lemhi County,
ID and much of southwest Montana where we expect thunderstorms
today. But thunderstorms will be farther east the rest of the
weekend and early next week. Overall, temperatures will remain
about 10 degrees above average for this time of year through
Wednesday or Thursday.

The air to the west is even drier, and it is helping to fuel the
large wildfires in Oregon. There are also fires in Washington and
British Columbia, but the direction of the flow means that most of
the smoke in our area is coming from Oregon, and we expect the
smoke to continue through this week at least.

The ridge builds back up towards the end of the week, just as a
trough tries to push into the Pacific Northwest by Friday. This
sets up a classic break down of the ridge pattern, which means
hot, dry, and windy conditions for Friday and Saturday. This is a
major concern for fire weather, especially after a week of hot,
dry conditions drying the landscape.

Once the break down of the ridge finishes, the region will cool
down to near average temperatures for this time of year over next
weekend or into the following week. Looking at long term
ensembles, the vast majority of the members support this
transition, but there is a lot of variability in the timing. Some
members have the cool down coming Saturday while others postpone
it until as late as Monday. Either way, models aren`t showing much
moisture coming with the front, so it will remain dry and breezy
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...With a strong ridge over the region, the main
aviation impacts will be from wildfire smoke originating in
Oregon. Impacts from the smoke have been minimal at area
terminals, with visibility getting as low as 5SM in the early
morning hours, but generally improving through the day. With the
ridge being stationary, we expect this pattern to continue through
most of the coming week. The main exception to that pattern today
is southwest Montana, which is getting some moisture from the
Southwest Monsoon. This will mainly affect terminal KBTM this
afternoon and evening with some thunderstorms.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for East Beaverhead.

ID...None.
&&

$$