Deer Lodge, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

170
FXUS65 KMSO 261812
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1212 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms today, gusty outflow
  wind potential.

- Isolated/scattered thunderstorm pattern Thursday through
  Saturday.

- Warm up expected to start next week, temperatures 10 to 15
  degrees above normal.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms increases after 2 July.


Showers and thunderstorms are possible today as a weak wave
transits the Northern Rockies today. Missoula and northward clouds
may inhibit convection slightly with results similar to yesterday
virga, sprinkles, and brief showers with large rain drops.
Elsewhere, any showers or thunderstorms will be capable of gusty
outflow winds and brief but heavy showers.

Friday similar conditions will have a similar result, albeit in
much smaller area, likely southern Bitterroot, Anaconda Range,
Lemhi County ID, and southwest MT.

High pressure builds over the region Sunday and Monday onward
expect temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

The models have been very consistent trying to pinch off energy,
from the overall flow, over northern California on the 2nd. If
this scenario happens southwesterly flow will advect or move a
unstable air mass into the Northern Rockies. While details are
limited, typical scenarios like this produce cloud storms/ virga
on day one, with increasing chances and expanding coverage of
thunderstorms each subsequent afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION... A moist air mass over the region with southwest flow
aloft means we`ll have another round of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Terminal KBTM is the most likely to be effected by
afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Terminals KMSO, KHRF, and
KSMN are in the area where we expect convection to initiate, so
storms are not expected to be mature in those areas but the
convection will be noticeable. Convection in the region should die
down by 27/02Z or 27/03Z.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$